The Pope must be doing something right

Because he has managed to upset the UN, Planned Parenthood, the Times, the Telegraph – actually every major newspaper – with his remarks about the ineffectiveness of using condoms to combat Aids.

Is his contention that fidelity and abstinence are the only effective ways to combat Aids true?

Using a condom correctly reduces the risk of contracting Aids by 80%.

So, if we take 100 HIV infected, sexually active people, consistently using condoms correctly, who have sex once a month with a new person, who in turn do the same, at the end of one year we would end up with 100 x 1.2^11 = 743 people infected with HIV. In 10 years, we would have 264,000,000,000. I admit, all the people involved would have to be somewhat energetic and enterprising, and I am using a 100% infection rate for the 20% condom failure possibility, not to mention the fact that we run out of candidates worldwide at 6,706,993,152; but using the Pope’s method, after 10 years we would still have only about 100 people infected with HIV.

To bring it down to a more personal level, with an 80% reduction in the chance of being infected, would you have sex, using a condom, with an HIV infected person?

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